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All markets move cyclically, including commercial real estate markets. While the crash of 2008 (fueled in large part by a bloated real estate market) is the beginning of recorded history in the.
One of the unique aspects of commercial real estate is that investors can invest successfully across all four phases of the cycle. However, understanding whether a cycle is climbing closer to a market peak, or starting down the slippery slope towards a market low can affect a variety of factors, such as: Pairing investment strategy to phase
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As has always happened, real estate recovered, first by bailing out or charging off bad loans, then by filling vacancies, and now with rising rentals and renewed construction. The basis of the real estate cycle is the fixed supply of land, which causes land rent to capture much of the gains from economic expansion.
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Let’s take a deeper look at past cycles in commercial real estate, in order to put current market conditions into a historical context. Certain features of the current cycle have raised concerns, including the length of the cycle, the steady increase in construction and sustained rise in property prices.
For commercial real estate, the year witnessed evolving fundamentals. Demand for space remained solid across the core property types, leading to continued declines in vacancies. Even as new supply picked up the pace, rent growth advanced. However, markets are displaying signs of a maturing real estate cycle.
The average commercial real estate cycle has been known to last between six and seven years before rapid expansion, peaking valuations and overbuilding forces the industry into a nationwide recession.
Real estate fundamentals are expected to remain solid in 2019, despite the market’s late cycle, rising interest rates and structural change disrupting the industry, most notably the retail sector. Positive global growth forecasts and an overall balance of supply and demand continue to support net operating income and property values.
One of the key metrics in commercial real estate investment is the yield or cap rate (capitalization rate); at its simplest, the ratio of the rent paid.
Conor Commercial Real Estate is the integrated real estate development firm of The McShane Companies headquartered in suburban Chicago, Illinois with regional offices located in Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Irvine.